IV

Aristotle’s chance, αὐτόματον, is distinct from “chance” in English. First, Aristotle deals with a category of chance in the limited sense concerning human actions where “object of choices” are involved and chance events are happening to agents capable of choices. Second, he deals with a category of chance in the broader sense concerning the natural realm which includes spontaneity and monsters. Aristotle’s chance carries a higher sense of coincidence and unusualness than the English term “chance” while having a lower sense of possibility than “chance.” Aristotle’s chance exists in this teleological context where chance events are meaningful and goal directed. The best interpretation, out of the four alternatives, for “something” in “chance events are for the sake of something” is “chance events are for the sake of what’s meaningful for their ultimately achieved result.”

While Aristotle has been addressing chance on an individual scale, modern technology of big data analysis and data pattern recognition has enabled us to understand chance both on a large scale and on a long time span. From Gaussian distribution to Pareto principle (also known as 80/20 rule), individual occurrences seemingly up to chance fit in predictive models with or without identifiable algorithms for such models. The trend will only increase as technology in machine learning and artificial intelligence grows. Aristotle’s concern with chance is out of his need for understanding his world. Like Aristotle, our understanding of chance, not just Aristotelian chance, will have to involve possibilities as well as unknown causes, in predictive models, with or without known algorithms.